By By JONATHAN CLAYBORNE
Staff Writer
A poll released by the conservative John W. Pope Civitas Institute gives Republican candidate Bill Cook a slight edge over incumbent state Rep. Arthur Williams, D-Beaufort.
Faced with that information, some area Democratic leaders were incredulous, while a few of their Republican counterparts essentially said, “We told you so.”
The poll, released Friday, places Cook in the favor of 43 percent of voters, with Williams just behind him at 41 percent.
Sixteen percent of the respondents were undecided, according to a Civitas news release.
The poll, conducted by SurveyUSA, was undertaken June 29 and June 30, Civitas reports.
The survey reached out to 350 registered voters, and had a margin of error of 4.9 percent.
“This district leans Republican and the voters are certainly moving that way this year,” Chris Hayes, senior legislative analyst with Civitas, was quoted as saying in the release. “Williams is better known, but the nationwide tide is favoring Republicans, especially among unaffiliated voters.”
Neither Cook nor Williams could be reached for comment Friday.
Jerry Langley, Democratic chairman of the Beaufort County Board of Commissioners, professed to be “shocked” by the pollsters’ findings.
“Basically, I haven’t heard a whole lot that (Cook has) said that would sway very many people,” Langley said. “Strange things do happen, but I just find it hard to believe right now.”
Beaufort County Sheriff Alan Jordan, a Democrat, had no comment on the poll, noting that he has his own race to run this year.
“I’m surprised,” Jordan added, speaking of the outcome of the survey.
Democratic county Commissioner Ed Booth was direct in his response.
“Don’t pay much attention to the polls,” Booth said. “That’s a fact.”
Speaking of the Civitas survey, he added, “To me, it’s a fantasy.”
Booth declared his conviction that Williams will prevail in November.
Commissioner Al Klemm, one of Booth’s Republican colleagues, reiterated his conviction that Cook can win.
“It’s totally possible, I guess, because this is going to be a strange election year, and it seems to be an anti-incumbent period of time,” Klemm said. “You’ve got to consider the makeup of the district. The district is basically about 32 percent Republican in Beaufort County, and if you ask independents, over 50 percent of the voters are conservative.”
GOP Commissioner Stan Deatherage called the poll “a snapshot of the public’s dissatisfaction with government as usual in North Carolina.”
“People are out of work, and they just can’t afford the high taxes of North Carolina,” Deatherage said.
As for the fact that Williams has raised more money for his campaign than Cook, Deatherage said, “Historically, having the most money has made a huge difference, but this year could be different. It could be more about substance than style.”
Now in his fourth two-year term, Williams has never faced a serious threat from a Republican competitor in District 6.
The district, which encompasses all of Beaufort County and a slice of northeastern Pitt County, is rated safe by most Democratic observers of local politics, though Civitas asserts the district leans Republican.
In 2004, Williams deflected then-challenger Klemm, ending the race with 16,192 votes to Klemm’s 13,272.
In 2006, Williams beat back GOP opponent Hood Richardson, closing the contest with 10,715 votes to Richardson’s 6,368.
Williams has a clear fundraising advantage over Cook, with more than $124,000 in his campaign account at last report.
In early June, Cook told the Daily News he had nearly $8,000 in his campaign account, and noted that $2,000 of that came from the state House minority leader, Rep. Paul “Skip” Stam, R-Wake.
The latest campaign-finance reports for North Carolina’s state and local candidates are due Monday.
Larry Britt, chairman of the Beaufort County Republican Party, said if Cook is ahead, it’s because he’s out working for votes.
“It doesn’t surprise me at this point — Bill Cook has been working very hard, door-to-door, face-to-face type, which is something Arthur Williams does not do,” Britt said. “The real test will be when Arthur Williams starts spending his money, and I don’t think he’s started to do that.”
Cook is “just getting out beating the bushes, knocking on doors,” Britt continued. “That’s kind of the way it’s supposed to be done.”
Cook hasn’t raised enough money for the kind of high-end advertising Williams is expected to do later on, Britt acknowledged.
“We’re encouraged, and I know we’re not stopping working,” he said. “It’s all the way to November. It’s the same type of work ethic all the way.”
Speaking as an individual Democrat, not as party spokeswoman, Ann Cherry indicated it’s too early to call the District 6 race.
“My main comment would be this is July,” said Cherry, secretary of the Beaufort County Democratic Party. “I’m not altogether sure that (poll) means anything at this point.”
Cherry pointed to the fact that, early in 2008, Hillary Clinton was considered a shoo-in for the Democratic presidential nomination, a prediction that time proved to be incorrect.
“I think the important thing is to plan to get your supporters out to the polls, but not worry about what polling companies are saying this far out,” she said.