ST. LOUIS — History doesn’t really tell us who first cited the July 4 milepost as the predictor for eventual pennant winners, and later, division champions, in baseball. But whether it was Connie Mack or John McGraw or Red Schoendienst or Bill James, the holiday has been a rather good barometer for determining champions.
Until baseball started playing regular-season games in March, July 4 was about the halfway point of the season. Now, it is a little past that as the Cardinals played their 86th game out of 162 in the twilight Monday against the Cincinnati Reds at Busch Stadium.
But from 1901 to 1968, when for most years there were only eight teams in each major league and when the seasons didn’t start until early to mid-April, statistics show that the leaders July 4 frequently went on to become the champions.
In the National League, 41 of the 68 teams that led July 4 went on to claim the pennant. In the American League, with the dynastic New York Yankees providing most of the data, 44 of 68 leaders clinched the flag.
More to the point, since three-division play for postseason purposes began in 1995, the same July 4 trend has applied to division winners. More so, in fact.
Of the 48 division winners in the National League since 1995, 29 of them were in first place by July 4 and went on to the playoffs. Another July 4 leader made the playoffs as a wild card. The American League leaders July 4 have been “money” more often. Of the 48 division winners, 35 of them have gone on to the postseason, including 33 as division champions. The American League leaders July 4 qualified for postseason play 73 percent of the time.
In the Cardinals’ 23 qualifications for postseason play, including one as a wild card in 2001 when they tied the Houston Astros for the best record in the National League Central Division, the Cardinals were in first place 13 times, or 57 percent of the time, on July 4. They were second five times, third three times, fourth once and sixth once in that magical year of 1964 when they surged from 10 games out on July 4 to win the pennant by one game.
Manager Tony La Russa’s record on that date is better than that average. The Cardinals, not counting their current tie for first place with Milwaukee, have led the Central Division seven times on July 4 under La Russa, and his teams have won the division five times in that span: 2000, 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006. In the division-winning year of 1996, his first with the Cardinals, La Russa had his team second, only one game back.
In 2009, another division-title season, the Cardinals trailed by percentage points July 4.
La Russa’s Oakland teams were equally efficient at maintaining their lead in the second half of the season. His 1988-89-90 American League champions all owned a July 4 edge. La Russa’s AL Western Division champion team in 1992 was second but only one game out July 4.
The Reds-Cardinals matchup, which has evolved in the past couple of years into one of the league’s most delicious matchups, albeit fraught with the potential for shenanigans, is one of the few old-school rivalries for the Fourth of July.
Before, there always seemed to be Cubs-Cardinals, Red Sox-Yankees and Dodgers-Giants matchups and the like July 4. This year, there are such non-historic matchups as Chicago-Washington, Arizona-Milwaukee, Houston-Pittsburgh and Colorado-Atlanta in the National League, and Baltimore-Texas, Detroit-Los Angeles Angels and Tampa Bay-Minnesota in the American League.
St. Louis has been the site of some great theatrics on July 4 although for many years, especially in the 1980s and early 1990s, the Cardinals franchise did not like to have home games on this holiday. For one reason, it felt much of the out-of-town fan base wouldn’t stay long in town on that day before heading home.