My Take: No time for panic
Published 4:29 pm Tuesday, May 17, 2016
As the East Carolina baseball team kicks off its final week of the regular season, it will do so outside of D1Baseball’s Top 25 Poll for the first time since the opening week of the season.
While this may be cause for concern for fans and spectators as NCAA Regional selection bears down, it’s no time to panic for the Pirates. A spot in a top-25 poll is not a major concern with three games remaining on the schedule.
The Pirates’ main focus should be, and is, securing the highest possible seed for the American Athletic Conference Tournament and a regional. ECU currently sits at No. 32 in the Rating Percent Index (RPI) polls. Hypothetically, this makes the Pirates a fringe No. 2 seed in a regional. The upcoming series against Central Florida — tied for last in the AAC — could greatly hurt the Pirates’ RPI if they were to lose the series. Though, a series win would likely not make much of an impact.
ECU sits in second place in the conference at 12-8-1 while Tulane leads with a 13-6 record. The Green Wave will face off with powerhouse Houston this weekend in a three-game set. The Cougars are having a bit of a down year, but still boast a loaded rotation.
To this point in the season, the Pirates have avoided major losses due to injury and fatigue. Two years ago, the loss of Travis Watkins in the opening weeks of the season and Jeff Hoffman a few weeks prior to the Conference USA Tournament put the breaks on what may have been a successful season. Last year, the Pirates’ young pitching staff seemed to stumble down the stretch. The lineup showed signs of fatigue during the Coral Gables Regional where two games were enough to send the Pirates home.
This year, it’s still hard to tell. Evan Kruczynski posted one of his worst outings of the season against one of the worst teams in the AAC in South Florida. Jacob Wolfe, though it came a week after a 139 pitch outing against Connecticut, was slapped around by USF last week to the tune of five runs over 4 2/3 innings of work. This was out of character for the pair of junior southpaws, but it’s hard to say if this was a one-time fluke or a foreshadowing of more to come down the stretch.
Health-wise, the Pirates have largely stayed on the field. Much of the credit is thrown around to the team’s athletic trainer, Zac Womack, after games. Parker Lamm suffered a minor injury early in the season but has returned to fight through for his final campaign, much like Hunter Allen a year ago. He has still been largely effective with a .313 average and playing phenomenal defense in the corner outfield positions.
The important thing to keep an eye on as the AAC tournament rolls around will be the health of the pitching staff, both in the rotation and in the bullpen. While the top three rotation spots are set with Kruczynski, Jimmy Boyd and Wolfe, the fourth — and crucial spot in college playoff baseball — is still up for grabs.
Seven Pirates have logged midweek starts this season and may be viable options as the fourth starter in the playoffs. Nick Durazo, who missed last week due to “personal reasons,” according the ECU head coach Cliff Godwin, made four midweek starts and the Pirates were 3-1 in those games. Should Durazo be available, he may be the best option as the fourth starter.
Davis Kirkpatrick has struggled at times this year after coming off of sophomore campaign that was washed out due to arm surgery. In 12 appearances, his ERA sits at 5.18 and he is 0-3 on the season. It seems that his confidence has eluded him coming back from surgery and it has shown through to his effectiveness.
From there, the drop off in starters is steep. Cam Colmore, Denny Brady, Kirk Morgan, Chris Holba and Evan Voliva have all made appearances as midweek starters. Outside of Morgan, they will all likely be used as bullpen throwers before the fourth game of a playoff comes around. There has been little talk around Durazo’s situation but, if he is not available for the playoffs, it may be a tough hill to climb.
Getting out of this weekend with a fresh set of starter arms is critical. The Pirates will want to put up runs early and let the starters put on cruise control for a few innings to keep the taxing innings off of their arms.