Hurricane season kicks off Thursday
Published 3:49 pm Friday, May 26, 2017
Although the 2017 Atlantic Ocean hurricane season officially begins June 1, there’s already been a named storm in the Atlantic.
Tropical storm Arlene formed April 19. It was the second time on record that a named storm formed in April. Tropical Storm Ana formed in April 2003. For the third year in a row, storm activity began early.
The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season ends Nov. 30.
North Carolina State University scientists predict 11 to 15 names storms this hurricane season, including four to six hurricanes and one to three major hurricanes. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast calls for 11 to 17 named storms, with five to nine hurricanes. Two to four hurricanes are expected to be “major” with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
Forecasters expect warmer-than-average waters across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker-than-average wind shear and a weak or nonexistent El Nino, said Ben Friedman, acting NOAA administrator.
When it comes to hurricanes, according to emergency-management officials, many people concentrate on high winds and rainfall. Those people should add another hazard — storm surge — to their list of concerns, officials suggest.
Storm-surge watches and warnings will again be linked with hurricane watches and warnings during the 2017 hurricane season, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
During a hurricane, storm surge is usually the greatest threat to life and property, according to the National Weather Service, which is concerned that despite increasingly accurate storm forecasting, many coastal residents do not take protective measures for storm surge. Emergency-management personnel at a 2015 meeting about storm surge (held at the North Carolina Estuarium) said many people don’t fully understand storm surge and the danger it poses.
Storm surge is an abnormal rise of water generated by a storm, over and above the predicted astronomical tides. Storm surge should not be confused with storm tide, which is defined as the water level rise due to the combination of storm surge and the astronomical tide. This rise in water level can cause extreme flooding in coastal areas particularly when storm surge coincides with normal high tide, resulting in storm tides reaching up to 20 feet or more in some cases.
In a presentation several years ago at the N.C. Estuarium, Greg “Rudi” Rudolph, shore protection manager for Carteret County, said when it comes to hurricanes, area residents should keep one factor in mind: location, location, location.
During his Tropical Cyclones 101 presentation (a hurricane is a tropical cyclone), Rudolph said key factors to keep in mind when keeping an eye on a hurricane are intensity, duration, approach (location), surge and tide. With those factors in mind, the worst-case scenario for Washington and nearby areas would be a major hurricane (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale) that’s slow-moving, approaches from the south or southwest, has major storm surge associated with it and strikes at high tide.
Because the strongest area of a hurricane (which rotates in a counter-clockwise direction) is its northeast quadrant, the northeast quadrant of hurricanes passing east of Washington miss the city, he said. A hurricane coming from the south or southwest of Washington means that northeast quadrant will be the storm’s leading punch when it strikes the city, he noted.
“A couple or 10 miles can make a big difference,” Rudolph said about the effects of a hurricane on an area.
“The moral of the story here is that if it’s a tropical storm coming straight for Little Washington — panic. If it’s a category 3, 4 or 5 — really panic. You know — evacuate,” Rudolph said.
In an interview last year, John Pack, Beaufort County’s former emergency-services director, said many Aurora-area residents learned a lesson about storm surge when Hurricane Irene came up the North Carolina coast last year. Pack noted that Hurricane Irene was a category 1 storm with minimal hurricane-strength winds, but its associated storm surge caused major problems in the Aurora area and other places in eastern North Carolina.
The Associated Press contributed to this article.