There is little doubt that Beaufort County will get some type of winter weather Thursday night, but it might not be until Thursday afternoon before forecasters know what kind of weather: rain, sleet or snow.

“As usual, we’re falling along that line where frozen participation is supposed to occur, that Highway 17 corridor is that line between freezing precipitation and rain,” said Chris Newkirk, chief of fire/emergency management with Beaufort County Emergency Services. “We know what the forecast models are saying, but there are so many variables with this. We’re going to be so close to freezing temperatures that night, if they drop one or two degrees, it changes (the forecast) drastically.”

While the National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City posted its first forecast to Facebook on Tuesday afternoon, meteorologists were clear the forecast could change: “Confidence has increased we will see precipitation in our area later Thursday and Thursday night. Still a lot to work out in terms of who sees snow, who sees the most and who sees nothing!”

Newkirk said how cold it gets, the amount of precipitation and the timing of the storm all have a bearing on how much or how little rain, sleet or snow Beaufort County might see, and until those factors are made clear, there’s no way of accurately forecasting the event.

“It’s an eastern North Carolina winter event, and it’s going to change hour by hour until it happens,” Newkirk laughed.

Regardless, Thursday night will be cold, wet and windy.

“That’s your typical precautions that we always give. Pets are the first thing that come to mind — let’s make sure they’re protected from wind and rain. It’s one thing to spend a cold night outside; it’s another thing to spend a cold and windy and rainy night outside,” Newkirk said.

Newkirk said the potential for an eastern North Carolina winter storm has been on long-range forecasters’ radar for a week, and Emergency Services will continue to watch it.

“I think the next 12-to-24 hours, we’re really just going to be focusing on awareness,” Newkirk said. “It really would not surprise me that it could be mid-day Thursday that they can nail down all the factors.”