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The afternoon updates have included another increase in expected rainfall amounts,  and provided us with additional details related to the timing of our forecasted impacts. Below is a summary of the latest storm track and current forecast for Beaufort County.

Storm Track Summary

Debby is expected to continue its track across Georgia re-enter the Atlantic near Savannah around noon tomorrow where it will begin a slow 36 to 48 hour trip northeast, along the SC coast. Debby is still expected to grow in size and regain its tropical storm status before making a second landfall near Myrtle Beach around 8am Thursday morning.  It is then expected to travel northwest toward Lumberton through 2am Friday, before turning northeast, travelling along the I-95 corridor through the remainder of the day.

Forecasted Impacts For Beaufort County

Debby is still forecasted to bring several days of impacts to our area as summarized below.

• Rain
  • Areas along and east of Blounts Creek, Bath and Pinetown are now forecasted to receive between 10 and 15” of rain over the next 7 days, with areas west receiving between 8 and 10 inches.
  • Our rain chances are expected to increase around noon on Wednesday, with a steady rain expected through early Friday morning.
    • Our heaviest rains are expected to occur during the day Thursday.
  • A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for our area through Friday.
  • Remember, this current forecast is track specific and based on a slow northeast offshore track along the South Carolina coast through Thursday. Changes to this track and / or its timing could impact these forecasted totals.

• Winds
  • Our winds are currently forecasted to increase around noon on Wednesday and remain elevated through Saturday morning. This afternoon’s model runs suggest the following wind conditions.
    • Wednesday: East winds sustained around 10 mph, with frequent gust between 15 and 25 mph.
    • Thursday:  East winds that will transition to the Southeast; sustained between 10 and 15 mph with frequent gust up to 25 mph.
      • Higher gust of 20+ mph is expected after sunset Thursday as Debby begins to cross the center of our state.
    • Friday: Southeast winds that will transition to the South in the afternoon; sustained between 15 and 35 mph with frequent gust up to 45.
      • Our highest winds are expected between 5pm Friday and 2am Saturday as Debby passes through the central part of the state.
    • Saturday: South winds will calm and transition to the Southwest before sunrise Saturday, becoming sustained around 10 mph.

• Storm Surge
  • It will most likely be tomorrow before we have any official forecast information related to storm surge. However, based on the forecasted wind directions,  it would not be surprising to see a 1 to 3 feet and / or 2 to 4 feet surge forecast for most of our waterways. Here is our reasoning for that expectation.
    • We will experience about 48 hours of sustained east and southeast winds greater than 10 mph between Wednesday morning and Friday morning. This wind direction historically pushes water up many of our waterways.
    • In addition, we are now forecasted to have about 7+/- hours of south and southwest winds, greater than 20 mph, beginning Friday afternoon and continuing through early Saturday morning. This wind direction historically pushes water up many of our northside rivers, to include the Pungo River, impacting Belhaven.
    • Based on the current forecast details, it will most likely be Saturday morning before we start to see any surge begin to subside.

Links to various forecast graphics and key messages from the National Hurricane Center can be found using the following link.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/094934.shtml?cone#contents

Please see  below and attached briefing from the National Weather Service for more information.

Our primary hazards continue to be an abundance of rainfall between Wednesday night and Saturday morning. This accumulation is expected to cause ponding water along our roadways, making for potentially hazardous conditions. Saturated grounds in combination with elevated winds are also likely to cause down trees and power outages. We encourage everyone to utilize tomorrow and the first half of Wednesday to prepare for this approaching storm. Preparations should include:

• Ensuring that you have enough food and supplies to last into the weekend.
• Have battery operated devices in case you lose power.
• Ensure you outside furniture, décor, etc. are secure.
• Ensure that your outside pets have adequate shelter and are away from standing / rising water.

 

From the National Weather Service, Morehead City:

Please see the latest briefing for Tropical Storm Debby.

What has changed:

• Debby made landfall early this morning in the Big Bend region of Florida and has been downgraded to Tropical Storm.

What remains the same:

• Heavy rainfall bringing the threat of flash flooding continues to be the greatest threat for ENC.
• Dangerous rip currents will also be a threat throughout the week into this weekend.
• River flooding may become a threat late in the week and into next week after several days of rainfall.
• Hazardous boating conditions will develop Tuesday night and continue through the week.

Uncertainty continues:

• Uncertainty remains with the track and potential additional impacts beyond today due to weak steering currents in the upper atmosphere.
• Debby is forecast to move off the Georgia coast Tuesday and slowly move just off the Southeast coast and make landfall along the South Carolina coast on Thursday.
• The amount of time and distance Debby remains off the Southeast coast will determine how much restrengthening occurs and ultimately the level of impacts we may experience from additional hazards, including Wind, Tornado and Storm Surge.

Remember you can get the latest information from our local tropical page: https://www.weather.gov/mhx/tropical or the National Hurricane Center.

NWS Morehead City Hurricane Debby August 5th 2024 5 PM Update