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Our office is continuing to monitor the development of a tropical system, that is expected to become a named storm (Debbie) within the next 48hrs. While there are still a lot of variables at play, the last 16 hours of various forecast model runs have begun to agree on a forecasted track. Below is a summary of information that we know, and things that we are continuing to watch for.

What We Know

This system is expected to become a named storm (Debbie) at it approaches the southwest tip of Florida near Key West early Saturday morning. Debbie is currently forecasted to intensify to Tropical Storm or Category 1 hurricane strength as it travels up the west coast of Florida Saturday and early Sunday. Debbie is expected to make landfall in the northeast pan handle Sunday, and cross the northern part of Florida before re-entering the Atlantic Sunday night / early Monday.

What To Watch For

The timing of when Debbie re-enters the Atlantic, and how far it can travel before encountering a blocking high pressure system continues to be critical unknown variable in the forecast. If Debbie is slow to cross Florida, it could be blocked by the approaching high pressure which would cause Debbie to stall off the east coast of Georgia / South Carolina the middle of next week. This scenario would primarily bring rain to our area with potential totals currently forecasted to be near 2 inches.

Please see the forecast graphics below for the 10-day rainfall totals and Debbie’s forecasted location / sustained winds according to the Euro model. (The Euro currently has Debbie moving slower, crossing our area on Thursday, Aug. 8.)

If Debbie crosses Florida quickly and can enter the Atlantic Gulf Stream before the blocking high pressure is in place, it could stall closer to North Carolina. This scenario would bring more impacts to our area, to include rainfall totals between 4 and 10 inches.

Please see the forecast graphics below for the 10-day rainfall totals and Debbie’s forecasted location / sustained winds according to the GFS model. (The GFS currently has Debbie moving faster, passing off the NC coast on Wednesday, Aug. 7.)