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Recent weather updates continue to include minor track and timeline changes to Debby’s path along the eastern US. Forecast models continue to vary on the where Debby will stall, and the track it will take afterwards. However, these variations seem to have very little impact to the forecasted conditions for our area as of now. Below is a summary of what we know and what we are still watching.

What We Know

Debby is still expected to intensify to Category 1 hurricane as it slowly travels up the west coast of Florida today and tomorrow. Debby is forecasted to make landfall in the northeast pan handle (between Tallahassee & Cedar key) early Monday morning and cross the northern part of Florida / southern Georgia Monday and Tuesday, before slowing significantly / stall near Savannah.

What We are Still Watching

Tuesday continues to be where we start to see differences between the various forecast models, mainly in regard to exactly where Debby will stall and what direction it will travel afterwards. The Euro now shows a more coastal track, with Debby re-entering the Atlantic near Savannah Tuesday afternoon and slowly travelling northeast along the SC coast Wednesday before making landfall near the SC /NC boarder early Thursday morning.  This most recent Euro model suggests that Debby would then travel north along the I-95 corridor through the day Thursday, entering Va around sunrise Friday morning. (The Euro has consistently seemed to be the closest match to the official track provided by the Hurricane Center so far.)

Other models, to include the GFS are currently showing that Debbie will stall near the coast of Savannah Tuesday afternoon and remain in that general location for 24 to 32 hrs.  These models then suggest that Debby will begin a westward track early Thursday morning traveling across the interior portions of Georgia and possibly into Alabama by sunrise Friday.

Forecasted Impacts For Beaufort County

Again, regardless of the disparities between these models, the impacts from Debby will be felt well beyond its centerline track. Debby is still forecasted to bring several days of impacts to our area as summarized below.

• Rain
  • 4 to 6 inches of rain is currently forecasted for Beaufort County over the next 10 days, most of which will occur between Wednesday and Saturday of next week. However, these rainfall totals will be track specific, and subject to change over the coming days. (Remember, these totals are based on a stall that is expected to occur near or south of Savannah, Ga.)

• Winds
  • Debby is not currently forecasted to be a significant wind event for our area. The most recent forecast models suggest that sustained winds ranging between of 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 to 45 are possible Thursday – Saturday of next week. (Especially Friday night & early Saturday morning.)
• Storm Surge
  • It will most likely be Tuesday before we have any forecast information related to storm surge.

Links to various forecast graphics and key messages related to Tropical Storm Debby from the National Hurricane Center can be found using the following link.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/094934.shtml?cone#contents